The upward momentum in the yield which we are in as of the 9/30 weekly candle is still on effect, however, with 2 full months worth of movement and Big movement at that we have finally entered a ‘sideways’ movement. This is the hallmark of a pivot coming soon and to be honest it would be worthwhile to expect a reversal candle before 01/17. The other side to this story is that the Super Strength in the yield move did not reflect on the market upward action. This is a clear sign the market is stalling and may be in for a rather significant leg down once the yield pivot mentioned above is materialized.
FED won’t let recession happen and govt would mask recession with manipulated data. A point in case: BLS massively revising now job growth data and FED may start QE big time if it senses recession.
I have come to realize not to think or tell the market what to do. It tells me everything.
Equities Up
Bonds Sideways
Gold Up
BTC Up
Commodities Declining
Dollar Up
What I think this says now is many are confident in US Business. Few are confident in International Business. Everyone is unsure about Debt and Inflation.
The narrative I see forming is fiscal responsibility loses to growth when it comes to Trump’s EGO. So deficits rise. Inflationary. I see China’s loss being a United States win as a consumer nation. I think China to prevent their economic situation from getting even worse makes a deal with the United States and we get cheap goods. Deflationary. We trade inflation with China for their deflation. To what direction rates ultimately go I do not know but I see growth and deficits continuing. Until a major news event shifts this is what market trends are telling me.
The upward momentum in the yield which we are in as of the 9/30 weekly candle is still on effect, however, with 2 full months worth of movement and Big movement at that we have finally entered a ‘sideways’ movement. This is the hallmark of a pivot coming soon and to be honest it would be worthwhile to expect a reversal candle before 01/17. The other side to this story is that the Super Strength in the yield move did not reflect on the market upward action. This is a clear sign the market is stalling and may be in for a rather significant leg down once the yield pivot mentioned above is materialized.
FED won’t let recession happen and govt would mask recession with manipulated data. A point in case: BLS massively revising now job growth data and FED may start QE big time if it senses recession.
Thanks!!
I have come to realize not to think or tell the market what to do. It tells me everything.
Equities Up
Bonds Sideways
Gold Up
BTC Up
Commodities Declining
Dollar Up
What I think this says now is many are confident in US Business. Few are confident in International Business. Everyone is unsure about Debt and Inflation.
The narrative I see forming is fiscal responsibility loses to growth when it comes to Trump’s EGO. So deficits rise. Inflationary. I see China’s loss being a United States win as a consumer nation. I think China to prevent their economic situation from getting even worse makes a deal with the United States and we get cheap goods. Deflationary. We trade inflation with China for their deflation. To what direction rates ultimately go I do not know but I see growth and deficits continuing. Until a major news event shifts this is what market trends are telling me.
Feels like added time in a tied football (soccer) game Central Bankers vs Markets will see who wins.